UK GDP on track to surprise BoE to upside in Q1 – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities assess the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the UK.

Quarterly GDP on track to surprise the MPC to the upside

“UK GDP rose 0.1% m/m in February, following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m expansion in January. While both hospital and food services fell sharply, as we expected, a notable 6.5% m/m surge in “land transport services and transport services via pipelines” coupled with a 1.5% m/m rise in telecommunications were enough to drive up services 0.1% m/m. Moreover, a sharp 1.2% m/m increase in manufacturing output also helped drive the upside surprise, largely on the back of transport equipment, which rose by 3.7% m/m.”

“Overall, the better than projected increase in February together with a 0.1ppts upside revision to the January data leaves quarterly GDP on track to surprise the MPC to the upside in Q1 (BoE: 0.1% q/q).”

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